Why is the prime minister safe

Rudolf Vyborny

The opinion polls are very bad for Labor and have been disastrously low for quite a while; lower then when the control freaks removed Kevin Rudd from the prime ministership. Respectable and knowledgeable commentators predicted that Julia Gillard would be removed by September. A few more wrong decision were made by her, it is October now but she is still a prime minister and no challenger is in sight .Why is that so? An obvious reason is that changing a leader was a bad experience for Labor. Another one is that Kevin Rudd was not and is not liked by a lot of members of the Labor caucus; going back to him might be popular by Labor voters but they do not elect the leader. My suspicion why Gillard survives and most likely will survive is politically incorrect and was therefore overlooked by commentators. It is now realised in Labor ranks that the next election is lost with or without the leadership change. Of course, no true believer would admit that publicly and commentators do not dare to make a prediction of Labor loss so far ahead of election. However, any potential challenger is acutely aware of it. He has no hope of changing the tide and after the lost election, he will be removed. Paul Keating won an unwinnable election but Labor has not got a leader like Keating, moreover Tony Abbott is not John Hewson. He will not undermine Gillard’s unnecessarily, it suits him to have Gillard as a Labor leader and, consequently, to have a landslide election victory. What could a new leader do? Change the immigration policy? The damage was done and voters would obviously prefer the proven record of Coalition to get things right. Onshore processing will not be approved by a majority of Australians. Abolish the carbon tax? This would be unthinkable! Any new leader will improve Labor’ standing in the polls, however, politics is about winning elections and he will not be able to do that. He would sacrifice himself in order to achieve a respectable result for Labor. Does anybody believes that any politician these days would value the party more than his own interest? Despite all talks about national interest it is all about staying in power, for Labor and also for the new leader. Without new, attractive and innovative ideas, which Labor has not got, changing a leader will not help. My prediction could be wrong, Gillard could be deposed. I however, would not be sorry that my prediction was wrong, she has not been a good prime minister.

About Rudolf Vyborny

Professor Emeritus, University of Queensland, Mathematics Areas of Interest are Real and Complex Analysis, particularly PDE's and the Henstock-Kurzweil integral.
This entry was posted in Australia, Labour Party, Politics and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Why is the prime minister safe

  1. rosencrantz says:

    That iceberg could not care less who was in charge of S.S.Titanic, and likewise, Australian public doesn’t care who leads ALP. Only journalists do. One of them, Tim Blair, organised a poll on his blog. Result as of yesterday: Kevin Rudd  7.98% ,Stephen Smith  4.15%, Craig Thomson  7.45%, the 14-year-old Bali marijuana boy  23.09%, Peter Beattie  1.28%, Bill Shorten  1.49%, Little Gracie  6.49%,  Malcolm Turnbull  26.17%, Malcolm Fraser  5.32%, Cate Blanchett  16.6%. The people hath spoken.

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