…from the quill of Antisthenes the Younger
David Goldman (the one writing as Spengler) is far too smart for me, not to mention for his own good, so even if I do not fully agree with his conclusions, it is simpler to leave his writing alone and let the other people to work it out. All I am game enough to do is to make some excerpts available to readers who would not otherwise bother to check The Asia Times.
In his last piece Spengler writes about rapidly declining fertility in Muslim countries, about which he, naturally, wrote a long time ago:
“The great and still ongoing declines in fertility that are sweeping through the Muslim world most assuredly qualify as a “revolution” – a quiet revolution, to be sure – but a revolution in which hundreds of millions of adults are already participating: and one which stands to transform the future,” writes demographer Nicholas Eberstadt in the June 2012 issue of Policy Review, the journal of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.“
“Eberstadt and co-author Apoorva Shah conclude, ‘The remarkable fertility declines [sic] now unfolding throughout the Muslim world is one of the most important demographic developments in our era.’”
“As early as 2008, a study by the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis concluded, ‘A first analysis of the Iran 2006 census results shows a sensationally low fertility level of 1.9 for the whole country and only 1.5 for the Tehran area (which has about 8 million people) … A decline in the TFR [total fertility rate] of more than 5.0 in roughly two decades is a world record in fertility decline.'”
“Demographic decline belies the liberal belief, encapsulated in President Barrack Obama’s June 4, 2009 Cairo speech, that a modernizing Muslim world can become a friendly partner of the United States. At the same time, the demographics make short work of the so-called realist argument that America can promote stability in regions with Muslim majorities by backing pro-Western autocracies.
But they also undermine the mainstream conservative view that nation-building, regime change, or support for pro-democracy movements can redeem Muslim countries. The Muslim demographic spiral bespeaks, rather, a dismal future of chaotic and disruptive decline in many of the most important Muslim countries, including adversaries like Iran as well as such putative allies as Turkey. “
“In my book, I contend that faith and fertility are inseparable, because a nation that has faith in its future will bring new generations into the world, while a nation that has lost faith in itself will not trouble to do so. The faith of Christians and Jews can thrive in modernity – witness America and Israel, by many gauges the most modern among industrial nations as well as the most religious and most fertile. But modernity and Islam appear incompatible. As soon as Muslims (and especially Muslim women) become literate, fertility drops below replacement, as in Iran, Turkey, Algeria and Tunisia.”
I strongly recommend that you read the whole article The Muslim revolution ‘hiding in plain sight’. It will be worth your time. But I can not help myself wondering whether, besides all those erudite explanations for the lack of children, there is not a more prosaic, or should I say proctological explanation. Paul Theroux, in The Pillars of Hercules – A grand tour of the Mediterranean, hinted at the preference for anal sex.